Okay, this is the real 'if the season ended today' snapshot post.
Since this week's games produced a bunch of shakeups in the standings, here's how they look now...
BCS Title: #1 Alabama vs. #2 Oklahoma
No analysis needed here; that's just who #1 and #2 are in the current polls.
Rose Bowl: #5 USC vs. #8 Penn State
Penn State locked up their Rose Bowl spot two weeks ago. Although Oregon State still owns the tiebreaker over USC if they lose to UCLA, that seems... unlikely at best. It's almost purely conference reputation that makes this game the Rose Bowl instead of the BCS title game.
Fiesta Bowl: #3 Texas vs. #6 Utah
Texas is almost a given here as they secure a BCS autobid at #3 in the BCS rankings. Ohio State (or a number of other teams) could face them instead (and the Fiesta could even pass on Texas), but this seems by far the most likely scenario. The Fiesta might pass on Oklahoma (having had them a few years in a row), but not Texas.
Sugar Bowl: #4 Florida vs. #10 Ohio State
BCS rules give the Sugar dibs on Florida, and they select Ohio State to play them due to their fans, and because they're actually better than the other options (Boise, TCU, Ball State, or Big East champ Cinci).
Orange Bowl: #17 Boston College vs. #14 Cincinnati
Cinci has won the Big East. Georgia Tech is the top-ranked ACC team, but BC plays #25 Virginia Tech for the ACC title. No other options here; this is what's left.
Sunday, November 30, 2008
11/30/08 BCS Bowl Projections
Well, that cleared a lot of things up. We still have a conference being determined by BCS ratings, but at least we know how that's likely to play out.
BCS Title: Oklahoma vs. Florida
Oklahoma probably wrapped up the Big 12 with a win over Oklahoma State last night (though the voters and computers will still have their say). And Florida seems unlikely to lose. I'm still not convinced either of these guys would beat USC, but the Trojans have perception issues.
Rose Bowl: USC vs. Penn State
Penn State has won a share of the Big Ten title and the Big Ten's automatic BCS bid by beating Michigan State to finish 11-1. USC has, I think, clinched the Rose Bowl win with Oregon's win over Oregon State (I believe the Trojans own the tiebreakers even if they lose to UCLA). If the national perceptions of conference strength were different, this could be for all the marbles instead of a secondary bowl.
Fiesta Bowl: Texas vs. Utah
Technically, it's possible for voters or the computers to move another non-BCS team ahead of Utah. And technically it's possible that Texas will not get an automatic BCS bid as BCS #3 or BCS #4. But it's not very likely; so I'm claiming they've locked up BCS bids now.
And Utah has a big enough fan base that the Fiesta can make the other bowls owe them a favor by taking the Utes when they don't have to.
Sugar Bowl: Alabama vs. Ohio State
(no change from last week on the commentary)
This is probably the first appearance of an SEC title game loser in a BCS bowl, at least in a while. But the SEC teams after 'Bama and Florida just aren't attractive options this year, even if they'll end up BCS eligible (Georgia's loss to Georgia Tech may knock them out of the top 14, and Mississippi isn't going to sneak in). And with the choices of Ohio State, Boise State, Cinci, and maybe Ball State -- expect the Sugar to snap up the Buckeyes without thinking twice.
Orange Bowl: BC vs. Cincinnati
Cinci all but wrapped up the Big East by beating Syracuse while Pitt beat WVU. Virginia Tech and BC play for the ACC title, though it looks like Georgia Tech is actually the best team in the ACC. BC won this the first time, so I'm projecting them here.
BCS Title: Oklahoma vs. Florida
Oklahoma probably wrapped up the Big 12 with a win over Oklahoma State last night (though the voters and computers will still have their say). And Florida seems unlikely to lose. I'm still not convinced either of these guys would beat USC, but the Trojans have perception issues.
Rose Bowl: USC vs. Penn State
Penn State has won a share of the Big Ten title and the Big Ten's automatic BCS bid by beating Michigan State to finish 11-1. USC has, I think, clinched the Rose Bowl win with Oregon's win over Oregon State (I believe the Trojans own the tiebreakers even if they lose to UCLA). If the national perceptions of conference strength were different, this could be for all the marbles instead of a secondary bowl.
Fiesta Bowl: Texas vs. Utah
Technically, it's possible for voters or the computers to move another non-BCS team ahead of Utah. And technically it's possible that Texas will not get an automatic BCS bid as BCS #3 or BCS #4. But it's not very likely; so I'm claiming they've locked up BCS bids now.
And Utah has a big enough fan base that the Fiesta can make the other bowls owe them a favor by taking the Utes when they don't have to.
Sugar Bowl: Alabama vs. Ohio State
(no change from last week on the commentary)
This is probably the first appearance of an SEC title game loser in a BCS bowl, at least in a while. But the SEC teams after 'Bama and Florida just aren't attractive options this year, even if they'll end up BCS eligible (Georgia's loss to Georgia Tech may knock them out of the top 14, and Mississippi isn't going to sneak in). And with the choices of Ohio State, Boise State, Cinci, and maybe Ball State -- expect the Sugar to snap up the Buckeyes without thinking twice.
Orange Bowl: BC vs. Cincinnati
Cinci all but wrapped up the Big East by beating Syracuse while Pitt beat WVU. Virginia Tech and BC play for the ACC title, though it looks like Georgia Tech is actually the best team in the ACC. BC won this the first time, so I'm projecting them here.
Sunday, November 23, 2008
11/23/08 If the season ended today...
Mostly the same shakeups happen here (where projections are strictly based on the current BCS standings when final results are unavailable, except that I assume Oregon State wins the Pac 10) as in the forecast. But here goes...
BCS Title: #1 Alabama vs. #2 Texas
No analysis needed here; that's just who #1 and #2 are in the current polls.
Rose Bowl: #17 Oregon State vs. #8 Penn State
As with the once-likely Ohio State-USC matchup, there's a possibility the Rose would try to arragne a swap rather stage a rematch of what was a one-sided game in the regular season. PSU has locked up their Rose Bowl slot, though.
Fiesta Bowl: #3 Oklahoma vs. #5 USC
Although the Fiesta might be a bit bored with Oklahoma, they don't really have much choice; the Sooners are guaranteed a BCS bid at #3, and the Fiesta will exercise their right to prevent anyone else from taking them. Likewise, USC is something of a no-brainer.
Sugar Bowl: #4 Florida vs. #6 Utah
(no change form last week)
The Sugar doesn't think twice about selecting Florida to replace Alabama, but has two unattractive options in Utah and the Big East champion. The Utes have been better at bringing fans, so Nawlins gets invaded by Mormons.
Orange Bowl: #20 Florida State vs. #16 Cincinnati
No one seems to want to win the ACC, while the Bearcats seem to want the Big East. Assuming my Orange don't pull off a second straight upset -- this one much bigger -- Cinci will win the Big East.
BCS Title: #1 Alabama vs. #2 Texas
No analysis needed here; that's just who #1 and #2 are in the current polls.
Rose Bowl: #17 Oregon State vs. #8 Penn State
As with the once-likely Ohio State-USC matchup, there's a possibility the Rose would try to arragne a swap rather stage a rematch of what was a one-sided game in the regular season. PSU has locked up their Rose Bowl slot, though.
Fiesta Bowl: #3 Oklahoma vs. #5 USC
Although the Fiesta might be a bit bored with Oklahoma, they don't really have much choice; the Sooners are guaranteed a BCS bid at #3, and the Fiesta will exercise their right to prevent anyone else from taking them. Likewise, USC is something of a no-brainer.
Sugar Bowl: #4 Florida vs. #6 Utah
(no change form last week)
The Sugar doesn't think twice about selecting Florida to replace Alabama, but has two unattractive options in Utah and the Big East champion. The Utes have been better at bringing fans, so Nawlins gets invaded by Mormons.
Orange Bowl: #20 Florida State vs. #16 Cincinnati
No one seems to want to win the ACC, while the Bearcats seem to want the Big East. Assuming my Orange don't pull off a second straight upset -- this one much bigger -- Cinci will win the Big East.
11/23/08 BCS Bowl Projections
A few pretty major shakeups here, due to Oklahoma's blowout of Texas Tech, and more ACC chaos. Also, if a school has won their conference's BCS bowl bid outright at this point, they'll be in bold and italics.
BCS Title: Oklahoma vs. Florida
After the Sooners destroyed the Red Raiders, projecting an upset next week seems a bit crazy. And Florida seems unlikely to lose. I'm still not convinced either of these guys would beat USC, but the Trojans have perception issues.
Rose Bowl: USC vs. Penn State
Penn State has won a share of the Big Ten title and the Big Ten's automatic BCS bid by beating Michigan State to finish 11-1. I'm still projecting USC here, though with Oregon State surviving another week and having the Civil War at home, that's getting tougher.
Fiesta Bowl: Texas vs. Utah
(no change from last week on the commentary) If Texas or Oklahoma State is available, I think the Fiesta takes them instead of Oklahoma, who has lost two straight Fiesta Bowls. And Utah has a big enough fan base that the Fiesta can make the other bowls owe them a favor by taking the Utes when they don't have to. Texas probably wins; they don't have Oklahoma's big game jinx, and 2008 Utah is not 2004 Utah or 2006 Boise State.
Sugar Bowl: Alabama vs. Ohio State
(no change from last week on the commentary) This is probably the first appearance of an SEC title game loser in a BCS bowl, at least in a while. But the SEC teams after 'Bama and Florida just aren't attractive options this year, even if they'll end up BCS eligible (which they shouldn't). And with the choices of Ohio State, Boise State, and the Big East champion -- which probably won't be West Virginia, with Cinci's win -- expect the Sugar to snap up the Buckeyes without thinking twice.
Orange Bowl: Georgia Tech vs. Cincinnati
Cinci all but wrapped up the Big East by beating Pitt. Further ACC chaos has Georgia Tech on top this week.
BCS Title: Oklahoma vs. Florida
After the Sooners destroyed the Red Raiders, projecting an upset next week seems a bit crazy. And Florida seems unlikely to lose. I'm still not convinced either of these guys would beat USC, but the Trojans have perception issues.
Rose Bowl: USC vs. Penn State
Penn State has won a share of the Big Ten title and the Big Ten's automatic BCS bid by beating Michigan State to finish 11-1. I'm still projecting USC here, though with Oregon State surviving another week and having the Civil War at home, that's getting tougher.
Fiesta Bowl: Texas vs. Utah
(no change from last week on the commentary) If Texas or Oklahoma State is available, I think the Fiesta takes them instead of Oklahoma, who has lost two straight Fiesta Bowls. And Utah has a big enough fan base that the Fiesta can make the other bowls owe them a favor by taking the Utes when they don't have to. Texas probably wins; they don't have Oklahoma's big game jinx, and 2008 Utah is not 2004 Utah or 2006 Boise State.
Sugar Bowl: Alabama vs. Ohio State
(no change from last week on the commentary) This is probably the first appearance of an SEC title game loser in a BCS bowl, at least in a while. But the SEC teams after 'Bama and Florida just aren't attractive options this year, even if they'll end up BCS eligible (which they shouldn't). And with the choices of Ohio State, Boise State, and the Big East champion -- which probably won't be West Virginia, with Cinci's win -- expect the Sugar to snap up the Buckeyes without thinking twice.
Orange Bowl: Georgia Tech vs. Cincinnati
Cinci all but wrapped up the Big East by beating Pitt. Further ACC chaos has Georgia Tech on top this week.
Sunday, November 16, 2008
11/16/08 If the season ended today...
In order to make things interesting, my 'if the season ended today' forecast is going to assume that Oregon State will win out and win the Pac 10 as long as it's possible for that to happen. I don't think this will happen. But with no upsets in the top 15 this week, this week's snapshot would only change in the Orange Bowl teams if I continued to assume USC wins the Pac 10 here. Same rules as last time; bold teams automatically go to the bowl I've placed them in given my assumptions; italics mean the team is guaranteed a BCS bowl bid given my assumptions. So...
BCS Title: #1 Alabama vs. #2 Texas Tech
(no change) No analysis needed here; that's just who #1 and #2 are in the current polls.
Rose Bowl: #21 Oregon State vs. #8 Penn State
As with the once-likely Ohio State-USC matchup, there's a possibility the Rose would try to arragne a swap rather stage a rematch of what was a one-sided game in the regular season.
Fiesta Bowl: #3 Texas vs. #6 USC
The Fiesta's choice of Texas is no choice at all; they can keep any other BCS bowl from taking a Big 12 team, and Texas is guaranteed a bid by finishing #3. With USC available, the Fiesta ignores nearby Utah in favor of the premeire western team of the decade.
Sugar Bowl: #4 Florida vs. #7 Utah
The Sugar doesn't think twice about selecting Florida to replace Alabama, but has two unattractive options in Utah and the Big East champion. The Utes have been better at bringing fans, so Nawlins gets invaded by Mormons.
Orange Bowl: #22 North Carolina vs. #19 Cincinnati
Cinci and UNC both play in their first major bowl, ever, I think.
BCS Title: #1 Alabama vs. #2 Texas Tech
(no change) No analysis needed here; that's just who #1 and #2 are in the current polls.
Rose Bowl: #21 Oregon State vs. #8 Penn State
As with the once-likely Ohio State-USC matchup, there's a possibility the Rose would try to arragne a swap rather stage a rematch of what was a one-sided game in the regular season.
Fiesta Bowl: #3 Texas vs. #6 USC
The Fiesta's choice of Texas is no choice at all; they can keep any other BCS bowl from taking a Big 12 team, and Texas is guaranteed a bid by finishing #3. With USC available, the Fiesta ignores nearby Utah in favor of the premeire western team of the decade.
Sugar Bowl: #4 Florida vs. #7 Utah
The Sugar doesn't think twice about selecting Florida to replace Alabama, but has two unattractive options in Utah and the Big East champion. The Utes have been better at bringing fans, so Nawlins gets invaded by Mormons.
Orange Bowl: #22 North Carolina vs. #19 Cincinnati
Cinci and UNC both play in their first major bowl, ever, I think.
11/16/08 BCS bowl projections
No real changes this week in how I think things will play out at the top, though I am going to change my projected ACC Champion.
BCS Title: Texas Tech vs. Florida
I'm not backing down from Oklahoma State beating Oklahoma just yet, so even if Oklahoma beats Texas Tech, Texas Tech makes the Big 12 title game. And even though crazy things have been known to happen in the Big 12 title game, Texas Tech should win it. And just for general craziness, let's have the Red Raiders win the whole thing.
Rose Bowl: USC vs. Penn State
Penn State seems to be back on track to win the Big Ten after stomping Indiana. Oregon State's dreams of winning the Pac 10 by winning are still alive after beating Cal, but both Arizona and Oregon can score in bunches. USC will win, because USC always beats Big Ten teams in the Rose Bowl.
Fiesta Bowl: Texas vs. Utah
(no change from last week on the commentary) If Texas or Oklahoma State is available, I think the Fiesta takes them instead of Oklahoma, who has lost two straight Fiesta Bowls. And Utah has a big enough fan base that the Fiesta can make the other bowls owe them a favor by taking the Utes when they don't have to. Texas probably wins; they don't have Oklahoma's big game jinx, and 2008 Utah is not 2004 Utah or 2006 Boise State.
Sugar Bowl: Alabama vs. Ohio State
(no change from last week on the commentary) This is probably the first appearance of an SEC title game loser in a BCS bowl, at least in a while. But the SEC teams after 'Bama and Florida just aren't attractive options this year, even if they'll end up BCS eligible (which they shouldn't). And with the choices of Ohio State, Boise State, and the Big East champion -- which probably won't be West Virginia, with Cinci's win -- expect the Sugar to snap up the Buckeyes without thinking twice. If this actually happens, figure on the Buckeyes to beat an SEC team in a BCS bowl for the first time.
Orange Bowl: Miami vs. Cincinnati
The Hurricanes are the new chic pick for the ACC after yet more chaos there (expect someone else pencilled in next week), and the Bearcats took another step to winning the Big East by beating Louisville.
BCS Title: Texas Tech vs. Florida
I'm not backing down from Oklahoma State beating Oklahoma just yet, so even if Oklahoma beats Texas Tech, Texas Tech makes the Big 12 title game. And even though crazy things have been known to happen in the Big 12 title game, Texas Tech should win it. And just for general craziness, let's have the Red Raiders win the whole thing.
Rose Bowl: USC vs. Penn State
Penn State seems to be back on track to win the Big Ten after stomping Indiana. Oregon State's dreams of winning the Pac 10 by winning are still alive after beating Cal, but both Arizona and Oregon can score in bunches. USC will win, because USC always beats Big Ten teams in the Rose Bowl.
Fiesta Bowl: Texas vs. Utah
(no change from last week on the commentary) If Texas or Oklahoma State is available, I think the Fiesta takes them instead of Oklahoma, who has lost two straight Fiesta Bowls. And Utah has a big enough fan base that the Fiesta can make the other bowls owe them a favor by taking the Utes when they don't have to. Texas probably wins; they don't have Oklahoma's big game jinx, and 2008 Utah is not 2004 Utah or 2006 Boise State.
Sugar Bowl: Alabama vs. Ohio State
(no change from last week on the commentary) This is probably the first appearance of an SEC title game loser in a BCS bowl, at least in a while. But the SEC teams after 'Bama and Florida just aren't attractive options this year, even if they'll end up BCS eligible (which they shouldn't). And with the choices of Ohio State, Boise State, and the Big East champion -- which probably won't be West Virginia, with Cinci's win -- expect the Sugar to snap up the Buckeyes without thinking twice. If this actually happens, figure on the Buckeyes to beat an SEC team in a BCS bowl for the first time.
Orange Bowl: Miami vs. Cincinnati
The Hurricanes are the new chic pick for the ACC after yet more chaos there (expect someone else pencilled in next week), and the Bearcats took another step to winning the Big East by beating Louisville.
Saturday, November 15, 2008
11/15/2008 National Games
This is a pretty dull week for college football. Only one game between ranked teams, and that just barely. While something interesting might happen when a ranked team plays an unranked team, I'm not going to try and guess at when it will happen, so...
#25 South Carolina at #4 Florida
All the numbers say this shouldn't be close. But Florida did lose to Mississippi, and I don't think they can keep blowing out everybody. So the visor keeps this one close. Florida 34, South Carolina 28.
#25 South Carolina at #4 Florida
All the numbers say this shouldn't be close. But Florida did lose to Mississippi, and I don't think they can keep blowing out everybody. So the visor keeps this one close. Florida 34, South Carolina 28.
11/15/2008 Big East Games
Cinci had more trouble than I expected with Louisville last night; I understand another quarterback went down for them. Who do they think they are, Oregon?
Rutgers at USF
Hmm... Rutgers has been playing much better lately, while USF has been in their seemingly traditional late-season swoon. Nonetheless, USF should win at home. USF 27, RU 17.
UConn at Syracuse
We all know how this one will go. The Orange will show some signs of life in the first quarter, getting a big play somehow to take a lead. But eventually Donald Brown will run us into the ground. UConn 31, SU 10.
Rutgers at USF
Hmm... Rutgers has been playing much better lately, while USF has been in their seemingly traditional late-season swoon. Nonetheless, USF should win at home. USF 27, RU 17.
UConn at Syracuse
We all know how this one will go. The Orange will show some signs of life in the first quarter, getting a big play somehow to take a lead. But eventually Donald Brown will run us into the ground. UConn 31, SU 10.
Thursday, November 13, 2008
Why the 'pure +1' playoff model is a bad idea...
Classic Bowl +1 is about the only psuedo-playoff format that I really hate; it's rarely an improvement over the current system. If we decide Big East/ACC is a 'classic' matchup for the Orange, and use the current BCS rules for two at-large spots rather than 4 (i.e. first a non-BCS in the top 12/above the top BCS champ, then ND if in the top 8, then #3 or #4; after that, I used the highest-ranked teams that wouldn't match up teams from the same conference), then backtracking a bit (and assuming that the highest-ranked team in the final BCS rankings won their conference, unless I remember otherwise, because I'm too lazy to look that up). Also, I'm slotting western non-BCS schools that qualify in the Fiesta, which makes geographic sense, not shuffling them all the way across the country.
2008
Rose: #5 USC beats #8 Penn State
Fiesta: #6 Utah beats #1 Oklahoma
Sugar: #2 Florida beats #3 Texas
Orange: #19 Virginia Tech beats #12 Cinci
This gives us three legit contenders for the title game, and would have even if Penn State and/or Oklahoma and/or Texas had won. Slightly better than the four legit contenders we'll have if Texas beats Ohio State, but no real improvement there.
2007
Rose: #7 USC beats #1 Ohio State
Fiesta: #4 Oklahoma beats #11 Hawaii
Sugar: #2 LSU beats #8 Kansas OR #6 Missouri (maybe; this is the only game that would match two teams that won their actual bowl games)
Orange: #9 West Virginia beats #3 Virginia Tech
At that point, who plays in the title game? USC just beat #1, but Oklahoma, LSU, and WVU also just beat highly-ranked teams, and all have the same number of lossses.
2006
Rose: #5 USC beats #1 Ohio State
Fiesta: #8 Boise beats #10 Oklahoma (actually happened, or we wouldn't project this)
Sugar: #2 Florida beats #3 Michigan (maybe; non-Ohio State Big Ten teams have actually done pretty well against the SEC, and Michigan really did beat Florida in 2007)
Orange: #6 Louisville beats #13 Wake Forest (actually happened)
Here, Florida and Louisville have the best records among BCS conference teams, Boise is undefeated and just beat Oklahoma, and USC just knocked off #1. Who goes to the title game, then?
2005
Rose: #1 USC beats #3 Penn State
Fiesta: #2 Texas beats #4 Ohio State (regular season rematch, though the first one was close, and I'm not sure Texas beats them twice)
Sugar: #7 Georgia beats #6 ND
Orange: #11 West Virginia beats #10 Virginia Tech
So in the first case where you've got a clear title game, you get exactly the same USC-Texas game you would have originally had. Except if Ohio State upsets them (and beating a good team twice is hard), and then you've got USC/Ohio State and a lot of grumbling from Georgia and West Virginia.
2004
Rose: #1 USC beats #12 Michigan (co-champs with Iowa, but held the tie-breaker)
Fiesta: #6 Utah beats #2 Oklahoma
Sugar: #3 Auburn beats #4 Texas
Orange: #16 Florida State beats #21 Pitt
In this season, you end up with two undefeated major conference teams, and an undefeated mid-major that just knocked off the #2 team in the country (given how Oklahoma played in the title game, you've got to like Utah's chances there). You probably get a USC-Auburn title game, but the Utes would be... upset.
2003
Rose: #3 USC beats #4 Michigan
Fiesta: #5 Ohio State beats #10 Kansas State
Sugar: #2 LSU beats #1 Oklahoma (actually happened)
Orange: #9 Miami beats #7 Florida State (I think this would be a rematch, in Miami's home stadium)
So here's the first time where this format actually helps, as we can have our USC/LSU game (though the expectation is that USC would have won it handily -- and it's what the current BCS rankings formula -- though not the 2003 BCS rankings formula -- would have given us anyway; it's just that in this version, Oklahoma has lost their bowl game and so has no right to complain).
2002
Rose: #2 Ohio State beats #6 Washington State
Fiesta: #4 USC beats #7 Oklahoma
Sugar: #3 Georgia beats #5 Iowa
Orange: #1 Miami beats #14 Florida State
So you get Ohio State-Miami again, with a nagging impression that if either played USC, they'd get killed... which is what really happened.
2001
Rose: #4 Oregon beats #8 Illinois
Fiesta: #3 Colorado beats #6 Tennessee
Sugar: #5 Florida beats #2 Nebraska (probably, anyway)
Orange: #1 Miami beats #10 Maryland
And, well, that probably gives a Miami/Colorado title game, which is a slight improvement. But the current BCS formula would have made the title game Miami/Oregon, which is better than either.
So there's all of one time since 2001 that the 'pure plus one' format would be better; it'd usually just create more confusion.
2008
Rose: #5 USC beats #8 Penn State
Fiesta: #6 Utah beats #1 Oklahoma
Sugar: #2 Florida beats #3 Texas
Orange: #19 Virginia Tech beats #12 Cinci
This gives us three legit contenders for the title game, and would have even if Penn State and/or Oklahoma and/or Texas had won. Slightly better than the four legit contenders we'll have if Texas beats Ohio State, but no real improvement there.
2007
Rose: #7 USC beats #1 Ohio State
Fiesta: #4 Oklahoma beats #11 Hawaii
Sugar: #2 LSU beats #8 Kansas OR #6 Missouri (maybe; this is the only game that would match two teams that won their actual bowl games)
Orange: #9 West Virginia beats #3 Virginia Tech
At that point, who plays in the title game? USC just beat #1, but Oklahoma, LSU, and WVU also just beat highly-ranked teams, and all have the same number of lossses.
2006
Rose: #5 USC beats #1 Ohio State
Fiesta: #8 Boise beats #10 Oklahoma (actually happened, or we wouldn't project this)
Sugar: #2 Florida beats #3 Michigan (maybe; non-Ohio State Big Ten teams have actually done pretty well against the SEC, and Michigan really did beat Florida in 2007)
Orange: #6 Louisville beats #13 Wake Forest (actually happened)
Here, Florida and Louisville have the best records among BCS conference teams, Boise is undefeated and just beat Oklahoma, and USC just knocked off #1. Who goes to the title game, then?
2005
Rose: #1 USC beats #3 Penn State
Fiesta: #2 Texas beats #4 Ohio State (regular season rematch, though the first one was close, and I'm not sure Texas beats them twice)
Sugar: #7 Georgia beats #6 ND
Orange: #11 West Virginia beats #10 Virginia Tech
So in the first case where you've got a clear title game, you get exactly the same USC-Texas game you would have originally had. Except if Ohio State upsets them (and beating a good team twice is hard), and then you've got USC/Ohio State and a lot of grumbling from Georgia and West Virginia.
2004
Rose: #1 USC beats #12 Michigan (co-champs with Iowa, but held the tie-breaker)
Fiesta: #6 Utah beats #2 Oklahoma
Sugar: #3 Auburn beats #4 Texas
Orange: #16 Florida State beats #21 Pitt
In this season, you end up with two undefeated major conference teams, and an undefeated mid-major that just knocked off the #2 team in the country (given how Oklahoma played in the title game, you've got to like Utah's chances there). You probably get a USC-Auburn title game, but the Utes would be... upset.
2003
Rose: #3 USC beats #4 Michigan
Fiesta: #5 Ohio State beats #10 Kansas State
Sugar: #2 LSU beats #1 Oklahoma (actually happened)
Orange: #9 Miami beats #7 Florida State (I think this would be a rematch, in Miami's home stadium)
So here's the first time where this format actually helps, as we can have our USC/LSU game (though the expectation is that USC would have won it handily -- and it's what the current BCS rankings formula -- though not the 2003 BCS rankings formula -- would have given us anyway; it's just that in this version, Oklahoma has lost their bowl game and so has no right to complain).
2002
Rose: #2 Ohio State beats #6 Washington State
Fiesta: #4 USC beats #7 Oklahoma
Sugar: #3 Georgia beats #5 Iowa
Orange: #1 Miami beats #14 Florida State
So you get Ohio State-Miami again, with a nagging impression that if either played USC, they'd get killed... which is what really happened.
2001
Rose: #4 Oregon beats #8 Illinois
Fiesta: #3 Colorado beats #6 Tennessee
Sugar: #5 Florida beats #2 Nebraska (probably, anyway)
Orange: #1 Miami beats #10 Maryland
And, well, that probably gives a Miami/Colorado title game, which is a slight improvement. But the current BCS formula would have made the title game Miami/Oregon, which is better than either.
So there's all of one time since 2001 that the 'pure plus one' format would be better; it'd usually just create more confusion.
Monday, November 10, 2008
If the season ended today...
This is another item that's going to be a regular feature on my blog during football season (I'm not going to try and do a bracketology every week in basketball season), but every week after the BCS ratings come out, I'm going to give my best guess of how the BCS bowls would play out if the season ended today, and the top-ranked team in each conference won their conference. Unlike the previous post, I make no attempt to forecast the outcome of future games (or even to look at down-the-line conference matchups). If a team is certain to appear in a given bowl, based on those assumptions, they're in bold. If they're guaranteed a BCS bowl bid, but not a specific bowl, they're in italics. So here goes...
BCS Title: #1 Alabama vs. #2 Texas Tech
No analysis needed here; that's just who #1 and #2 are in the current polls.
Rose Bowl: #6 USC vs. #8 Penn State
And with Penn State falling out of the BCS title game picture, this one matches automatic bid winners.
Fiesta Bowl: #3 Texas vs. #7 Utah
The Fiesta's choice of Texas is no choice at all; they can keep any other BCS bowl from taking a Big 12 team, and Texas is guaranteed a bid by finishing #3. While they don't have to take Utah, the last few years have shown that non-BCS fans will travel to major bowls in numbers, and Utah fans to Phoenix even more so.
Sugar Bowl: #4 Florida vs. #11 Ohio State
Because of the way things fall out if the Fiesta selects Utah, the Sugar pretty much has two free slots. But conference loyalty and common sense pretty much demands selecting Florida, and Ohio State is a much better draw of fans and TV viewers than Boise State, Ball State, or Pitt.
Orange Bowl: #16 North Carolina vs. #21 Pitt
The Big East champ probably falls to the final spot unless it's West Virginia (whose fans have a reputation for travelling well, unlike the other Big East contenders), and the Fiesta Bowl decides to take Ohio State.
BCS Title: #1 Alabama vs. #2 Texas Tech
No analysis needed here; that's just who #1 and #2 are in the current polls.
Rose Bowl: #6 USC vs. #8 Penn State
And with Penn State falling out of the BCS title game picture, this one matches automatic bid winners.
Fiesta Bowl: #3 Texas vs. #7 Utah
The Fiesta's choice of Texas is no choice at all; they can keep any other BCS bowl from taking a Big 12 team, and Texas is guaranteed a bid by finishing #3. While they don't have to take Utah, the last few years have shown that non-BCS fans will travel to major bowls in numbers, and Utah fans to Phoenix even more so.
Sugar Bowl: #4 Florida vs. #11 Ohio State
Because of the way things fall out if the Fiesta selects Utah, the Sugar pretty much has two free slots. But conference loyalty and common sense pretty much demands selecting Florida, and Ohio State is a much better draw of fans and TV viewers than Boise State, Ball State, or Pitt.
Orange Bowl: #16 North Carolina vs. #21 Pitt
The Big East champ probably falls to the final spot unless it's West Virginia (whose fans have a reputation for travelling well, unlike the other Big East contenders), and the Fiesta Bowl decides to take Ohio State.
Saturday, November 8, 2008
This week's BCS bowl projections
I'm going to try and do these after every weekend of football for the rest of the season.
So here goes...
BCS Title: Texas Tech vs. Florida
I still think Oklahoma State beats Oklahoma, so even if Oklahoma beats Texas Tech, Texas Tech makes the Big 12 title game. And even though crazy things have been known to happen in the Big 12 title game, Texas Tech should win it. And just for general craziness, let's have the Red Raiders win the whole thing.
Rose Bowl: USC vs. Penn State
Even after getting upset by Iowa, you still have to think Penn State wins the Big Ten. And while Oregon State can win the Pac 10 by winning out, that's not likely. USC will win, because USC always beats Big Ten teams in the Rose Bowl.
Fiesta Bowl: Texas vs. Utah
If Texas or Oklahoma State is available, I think the Fiesta takes them instead of Oklahoma, who has lost two straight Fiesta Bowls. And Utah has a big enough fan base that the Fiesta can make the other bowls owe them a favor by taking the Utes when they don't have to. Texas probably wins; they don't have Oklahoma's big game jinx, and 2008 Utah is not 2004 Utah or 2006 Boise State.
Sugar Bowl: Alabama vs. Ohio State
This is probably the first appearance of an SEC title game loser in a BCS bowl, at least in a while. But the SEC teams after 'Bama and Florida just aren't attractive options this year, even if they'll end up BCS eligible (which they shouldn't). And with the choices of Ohio State, Boise State, and the Big East champion -- which probably won't be West Virginia, with Cinci's win -- expect the Sugar to snap up the Buckeyes without thinking twice. If this actually happens, figure on the Buckeyes to beat an SEC team in a BCS bowl for the first time.
Orange Bowl: North Carolina vs. Cincinnati
This game is probably setting an all-time low for BCS bowl TV rankings, but UNC seems to be the class of the ACC, such as it is, and the Pitt/Cinci game (which should decide the Big East title) is at Cinci. Cinci will of course, win if this actually happens; it's a Big East/ACC bowl game, after all.
So here goes...
BCS Title: Texas Tech vs. Florida
I still think Oklahoma State beats Oklahoma, so even if Oklahoma beats Texas Tech, Texas Tech makes the Big 12 title game. And even though crazy things have been known to happen in the Big 12 title game, Texas Tech should win it. And just for general craziness, let's have the Red Raiders win the whole thing.
Rose Bowl: USC vs. Penn State
Even after getting upset by Iowa, you still have to think Penn State wins the Big Ten. And while Oregon State can win the Pac 10 by winning out, that's not likely. USC will win, because USC always beats Big Ten teams in the Rose Bowl.
Fiesta Bowl: Texas vs. Utah
If Texas or Oklahoma State is available, I think the Fiesta takes them instead of Oklahoma, who has lost two straight Fiesta Bowls. And Utah has a big enough fan base that the Fiesta can make the other bowls owe them a favor by taking the Utes when they don't have to. Texas probably wins; they don't have Oklahoma's big game jinx, and 2008 Utah is not 2004 Utah or 2006 Boise State.
Sugar Bowl: Alabama vs. Ohio State
This is probably the first appearance of an SEC title game loser in a BCS bowl, at least in a while. But the SEC teams after 'Bama and Florida just aren't attractive options this year, even if they'll end up BCS eligible (which they shouldn't). And with the choices of Ohio State, Boise State, and the Big East champion -- which probably won't be West Virginia, with Cinci's win -- expect the Sugar to snap up the Buckeyes without thinking twice. If this actually happens, figure on the Buckeyes to beat an SEC team in a BCS bowl for the first time.
Orange Bowl: North Carolina vs. Cincinnati
This game is probably setting an all-time low for BCS bowl TV rankings, but UNC seems to be the class of the ACC, such as it is, and the Pitt/Cinci game (which should decide the Big East title) is at Cinci. Cinci will of course, win if this actually happens; it's a Big East/ACC bowl game, after all.
Today's National Games of Interest
#1 Alabama at #16 LSU - The most flawed of the undefeated and one-loss major-conference teams by far plays a team holding on to a top -25 spot based on reputation. This isn't going to be pretty. Alabama's better by any reasonable measure, but I just don't think the Tide are good enough to go all season without losing to an inferior team. LSU 27, Alabama 24.
#9 Oklahoma State at #2 Texas Tech - You'd think this would be a classic Big 12 south shootout, but the Red Raiders and Cowboys, more than anyone else in the Big 12, have occasionally shown signs of having a defense. I mean, it's bad enough if the Red Raiders discover this strange concept called 'running the ball', but if they play defense too, that's really not fair. On the other hand, Oklahoma State seems to be flying under the radar a bit in the Big 12; I can't see any real reason why people think they're not as good as their in-state rivals. And while Lubbock is a tough place to play, and I'd bet Mike Leach does that 'one game at a time' thing better than anyone, it's hard to do what they did against Texas and not have a let down the next week. So I'm saying Oklahoma State 31, Texas Tech 28.
#21 Cal at #7 USC - If anyone in the Pac 10 is going to beat USC if they even bring their 'B' game, it ought to be Cal. They've got pretty nice offense no matter who's at quarterback, and a respectable defense. Unfortunately, after falling in the BCS rankings despite five straight wins where they've outscored opponents 214-20 (even if that did involve both Washington schools) Pete Carroll is angry. USC 34, Cal 17.
#11 Ohio State at #24 Northwestern - The Wildcats are having a nice season, which, like Penn State's run at the BCS title, makes SU's blowout loss to them look less bad. Ohio State's had a few wins that were closer than they needed to be, got blown out by USC, and lost a close one to Penn State at home. But that doesn't mean the Buckeyes aren't the much better team. Ohio State 31, Northwestern 10.
#19 Georgia Tech at #20 North Carolina - The ACC seems to clutter the bottom 5-10 of the top 25, though the loser of this game ought to fall out. Since I'm not a fan of offenses that forget the forward pass is legal, and you should generally take the home team in a close game, I'll take the Tar Heels here. UNC 21, GT 17.
That's it for match-ups between top 25 teams this Saturday.
#9 Oklahoma State at #2 Texas Tech - You'd think this would be a classic Big 12 south shootout, but the Red Raiders and Cowboys, more than anyone else in the Big 12, have occasionally shown signs of having a defense. I mean, it's bad enough if the Red Raiders discover this strange concept called 'running the ball', but if they play defense too, that's really not fair. On the other hand, Oklahoma State seems to be flying under the radar a bit in the Big 12; I can't see any real reason why people think they're not as good as their in-state rivals. And while Lubbock is a tough place to play, and I'd bet Mike Leach does that 'one game at a time' thing better than anyone, it's hard to do what they did against Texas and not have a let down the next week. So I'm saying Oklahoma State 31, Texas Tech 28.
#21 Cal at #7 USC - If anyone in the Pac 10 is going to beat USC if they even bring their 'B' game, it ought to be Cal. They've got pretty nice offense no matter who's at quarterback, and a respectable defense. Unfortunately, after falling in the BCS rankings despite five straight wins where they've outscored opponents 214-20 (even if that did involve both Washington schools) Pete Carroll is angry. USC 34, Cal 17.
#11 Ohio State at #24 Northwestern - The Wildcats are having a nice season, which, like Penn State's run at the BCS title, makes SU's blowout loss to them look less bad. Ohio State's had a few wins that were closer than they needed to be, got blown out by USC, and lost a close one to Penn State at home. But that doesn't mean the Buckeyes aren't the much better team. Ohio State 31, Northwestern 10.
#19 Georgia Tech at #20 North Carolina - The ACC seems to clutter the bottom 5-10 of the top 25, though the loser of this game ought to fall out. Since I'm not a fan of offenses that forget the forward pass is legal, and you should generally take the home team in a close game, I'll take the Tar Heels here. UNC 21, GT 17.
That's it for match-ups between top 25 teams this Saturday.
Today's Big East Games
Syracuse at Rutgers - for the first half of this season, this game looked winnable for the Orange, though only in the sick and twisted way that a contest between equally incompetent combatants must have a victor. Since then, the Scarlet Knights seem to have remembered they're supposed to be sort of okay, knocking off UConn and Pitt, and staying close to WVU and Cinci. Meanwhile, GRob's Orange have continued to stagger along hopelessly, excepting last week's upset of Louisville. Which made no sense. So figure Rutgers' recievers abuse what we laughingly call a secondary, and Brinkley puts up 100+ yards in a failed cause. Rutgers 34, Syracuse 17.
Louisville at Pitt - it looked like the Cards might have been on a bit of a roll, before GRob continued his bizarre mastery over Krags. Pitt got ambushed by Rutgers, then beat ND in 4OT. My guess is that Pitt's better, and they're at home. So Pitt 27, Louisville 17.
Cinci at #25 WVU - If the Big East were treated like other BCS conferences by the polls, this would be a match up of #20-ish Cinci vs #15-ish WVU, and so a somewhat higher profile game nationally. But it's not. The Bearcats are playing very well, but if the 'eers have found their stride -- and it looks like they have -- then there aren't many teams that can beat them, especially in Morgantown. WVU 31, Cinci 24.
Wednesday, November 5, 2008
Welcome to my blog
You've probably seen me posting on some college sports site on the internet, likely on Syracuse football (such as it is) or basketball. And I've decided that anyone who does that as much as I do really ought to have a sports blog out there.
Since I didn't actually go to Syracuse, and I work in the biotech industry (in IT), I don't actually have the kind of contacts that would let me do any kind of original reporting. And I've never been one to obsess with recruiting; I pay attention to college kids once they put on Orange, not before. But I'm going to try to be interesting, and at least sometimes funny.
Since I didn't actually go to Syracuse, and I work in the biotech industry (in IT), I don't actually have the kind of contacts that would let me do any kind of original reporting. And I've never been one to obsess with recruiting; I pay attention to college kids once they put on Orange, not before. But I'm going to try to be interesting, and at least sometimes funny.
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