Okay, this is the real 'if the season ended today' snapshot post.
Since this week's games produced a bunch of shakeups in the standings, here's how they look now...
BCS Title: #1 Alabama vs. #2 Oklahoma
No analysis needed here; that's just who #1 and #2 are in the current polls.
Rose Bowl: #5 USC vs. #8 Penn State
Penn State locked up their Rose Bowl spot two weeks ago. Although Oregon State still owns the tiebreaker over USC if they lose to UCLA, that seems... unlikely at best. It's almost purely conference reputation that makes this game the Rose Bowl instead of the BCS title game.
Fiesta Bowl: #3 Texas vs. #6 Utah
Texas is almost a given here as they secure a BCS autobid at #3 in the BCS rankings. Ohio State (or a number of other teams) could face them instead (and the Fiesta could even pass on Texas), but this seems by far the most likely scenario. The Fiesta might pass on Oklahoma (having had them a few years in a row), but not Texas.
Sugar Bowl: #4 Florida vs. #10 Ohio State
BCS rules give the Sugar dibs on Florida, and they select Ohio State to play them due to their fans, and because they're actually better than the other options (Boise, TCU, Ball State, or Big East champ Cinci).
Orange Bowl: #17 Boston College vs. #14 Cincinnati
Cinci has won the Big East. Georgia Tech is the top-ranked ACC team, but BC plays #25 Virginia Tech for the ACC title. No other options here; this is what's left.
Showing posts with label bowl snapshot. Show all posts
Showing posts with label bowl snapshot. Show all posts
Sunday, November 30, 2008
Sunday, November 16, 2008
11/16/08 If the season ended today...
In order to make things interesting, my 'if the season ended today' forecast is going to assume that Oregon State will win out and win the Pac 10 as long as it's possible for that to happen. I don't think this will happen. But with no upsets in the top 15 this week, this week's snapshot would only change in the Orange Bowl teams if I continued to assume USC wins the Pac 10 here. Same rules as last time; bold teams automatically go to the bowl I've placed them in given my assumptions; italics mean the team is guaranteed a BCS bowl bid given my assumptions. So...
BCS Title: #1 Alabama vs. #2 Texas Tech
(no change) No analysis needed here; that's just who #1 and #2 are in the current polls.
Rose Bowl: #21 Oregon State vs. #8 Penn State
As with the once-likely Ohio State-USC matchup, there's a possibility the Rose would try to arragne a swap rather stage a rematch of what was a one-sided game in the regular season.
Fiesta Bowl: #3 Texas vs. #6 USC
The Fiesta's choice of Texas is no choice at all; they can keep any other BCS bowl from taking a Big 12 team, and Texas is guaranteed a bid by finishing #3. With USC available, the Fiesta ignores nearby Utah in favor of the premeire western team of the decade.
Sugar Bowl: #4 Florida vs. #7 Utah
The Sugar doesn't think twice about selecting Florida to replace Alabama, but has two unattractive options in Utah and the Big East champion. The Utes have been better at bringing fans, so Nawlins gets invaded by Mormons.
Orange Bowl: #22 North Carolina vs. #19 Cincinnati
Cinci and UNC both play in their first major bowl, ever, I think.
BCS Title: #1 Alabama vs. #2 Texas Tech
(no change) No analysis needed here; that's just who #1 and #2 are in the current polls.
Rose Bowl: #21 Oregon State vs. #8 Penn State
As with the once-likely Ohio State-USC matchup, there's a possibility the Rose would try to arragne a swap rather stage a rematch of what was a one-sided game in the regular season.
Fiesta Bowl: #3 Texas vs. #6 USC
The Fiesta's choice of Texas is no choice at all; they can keep any other BCS bowl from taking a Big 12 team, and Texas is guaranteed a bid by finishing #3. With USC available, the Fiesta ignores nearby Utah in favor of the premeire western team of the decade.
Sugar Bowl: #4 Florida vs. #7 Utah
The Sugar doesn't think twice about selecting Florida to replace Alabama, but has two unattractive options in Utah and the Big East champion. The Utes have been better at bringing fans, so Nawlins gets invaded by Mormons.
Orange Bowl: #22 North Carolina vs. #19 Cincinnati
Cinci and UNC both play in their first major bowl, ever, I think.
Monday, November 10, 2008
If the season ended today...
This is another item that's going to be a regular feature on my blog during football season (I'm not going to try and do a bracketology every week in basketball season), but every week after the BCS ratings come out, I'm going to give my best guess of how the BCS bowls would play out if the season ended today, and the top-ranked team in each conference won their conference. Unlike the previous post, I make no attempt to forecast the outcome of future games (or even to look at down-the-line conference matchups). If a team is certain to appear in a given bowl, based on those assumptions, they're in bold. If they're guaranteed a BCS bowl bid, but not a specific bowl, they're in italics. So here goes...
BCS Title: #1 Alabama vs. #2 Texas Tech
No analysis needed here; that's just who #1 and #2 are in the current polls.
Rose Bowl: #6 USC vs. #8 Penn State
And with Penn State falling out of the BCS title game picture, this one matches automatic bid winners.
Fiesta Bowl: #3 Texas vs. #7 Utah
The Fiesta's choice of Texas is no choice at all; they can keep any other BCS bowl from taking a Big 12 team, and Texas is guaranteed a bid by finishing #3. While they don't have to take Utah, the last few years have shown that non-BCS fans will travel to major bowls in numbers, and Utah fans to Phoenix even more so.
Sugar Bowl: #4 Florida vs. #11 Ohio State
Because of the way things fall out if the Fiesta selects Utah, the Sugar pretty much has two free slots. But conference loyalty and common sense pretty much demands selecting Florida, and Ohio State is a much better draw of fans and TV viewers than Boise State, Ball State, or Pitt.
Orange Bowl: #16 North Carolina vs. #21 Pitt
The Big East champ probably falls to the final spot unless it's West Virginia (whose fans have a reputation for travelling well, unlike the other Big East contenders), and the Fiesta Bowl decides to take Ohio State.
BCS Title: #1 Alabama vs. #2 Texas Tech
No analysis needed here; that's just who #1 and #2 are in the current polls.
Rose Bowl: #6 USC vs. #8 Penn State
And with Penn State falling out of the BCS title game picture, this one matches automatic bid winners.
Fiesta Bowl: #3 Texas vs. #7 Utah
The Fiesta's choice of Texas is no choice at all; they can keep any other BCS bowl from taking a Big 12 team, and Texas is guaranteed a bid by finishing #3. While they don't have to take Utah, the last few years have shown that non-BCS fans will travel to major bowls in numbers, and Utah fans to Phoenix even more so.
Sugar Bowl: #4 Florida vs. #11 Ohio State
Because of the way things fall out if the Fiesta selects Utah, the Sugar pretty much has two free slots. But conference loyalty and common sense pretty much demands selecting Florida, and Ohio State is a much better draw of fans and TV viewers than Boise State, Ball State, or Pitt.
Orange Bowl: #16 North Carolina vs. #21 Pitt
The Big East champ probably falls to the final spot unless it's West Virginia (whose fans have a reputation for travelling well, unlike the other Big East contenders), and the Fiesta Bowl decides to take Ohio State.
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