11/16/08 BCS bowl projections

No real changes this week in how I think things will play out at the top, though I am going to change my projected ACC Champion.

BCS Title: Texas Tech vs. Florida

I'm not backing down from Oklahoma State beating Oklahoma just yet, so even if Oklahoma beats Texas Tech, Texas Tech makes the Big 12 title game. And even though crazy things have been known to happen in the Big 12 title game, Texas Tech should win it. And just for general craziness, let's have the Red Raiders win the whole thing.

Rose Bowl: USC vs. Penn State
Penn State seems to be back on track to win the Big Ten after stomping Indiana. Oregon State's dreams of winning the Pac 10 by winning are still alive after beating Cal, but both Arizona and Oregon can score in bunches. USC will win, because USC always beats Big Ten teams in the Rose Bowl.

Fiesta Bowl: Texas vs. Utah
(no change from last week on the commentary) If Texas or Oklahoma State is available, I think the Fiesta takes them instead of Oklahoma, who has lost two straight Fiesta Bowls. And Utah has a big enough fan base that the Fiesta can make the other bowls owe them a favor by taking the Utes when they don't have to. Texas probably wins; they don't have Oklahoma's big game jinx, and 2008 Utah is not 2004 Utah or 2006 Boise State.

Sugar Bowl: Alabama vs. Ohio State
(no change from last week on the commentary) This is probably the first appearance of an SEC title game loser in a BCS bowl, at least in a while. But the SEC teams after 'Bama and Florida just aren't attractive options this year, even if they'll end up BCS eligible (which they shouldn't). And with the choices of Ohio State, Boise State, and the Big East champion -- which probably won't be West Virginia, with Cinci's win -- expect the Sugar to snap up the Buckeyes without thinking twice. If this actually happens, figure on the Buckeyes to beat an SEC team in a BCS bowl for the first time.

Orange Bowl: Miami vs. Cincinnati
The Hurricanes are the new chic pick for the ACC after yet more chaos there (expect someone else pencilled in next week), and the Bearcats took another step to winning the Big East by beating Louisville.