11/30/08 BCS Bowl Projections

Well, that cleared a lot of things up. We still have a conference being determined by BCS ratings, but at least we know how that's likely to play out.

BCS Title: Oklahoma vs. Florida

Oklahoma probably wrapped up the Big 12 with a win over Oklahoma State last night (though the voters and computers will still have their say). And Florida seems unlikely to lose. I'm still not convinced either of these guys would beat USC, but the Trojans have perception issues.

Rose Bowl: USC vs. Penn State

Penn State has won a share of the Big Ten title and the Big Ten's automatic BCS bid by beating Michigan State to finish 11-1. USC has, I think, clinched the Rose Bowl win with Oregon's win over Oregon State (I believe the Trojans own the tiebreakers even if they lose to UCLA). If the national perceptions of conference strength were different, this could be for all the marbles instead of a secondary bowl.

Fiesta Bowl: Texas vs. Utah

Technically, it's possible for voters or the computers to move another non-BCS team ahead of Utah. And technically it's possible that Texas will not get an automatic BCS bid as BCS #3 or BCS #4. But it's not very likely; so I'm claiming they've locked up BCS bids now.

And Utah has a big enough fan base that the Fiesta can make the other bowls owe them a favor by taking the Utes when they don't have to.

Sugar Bowl: Alabama vs. Ohio State

(no change from last week on the commentary)

This is probably the first appearance of an SEC title game loser in a BCS bowl, at least in a while. But the SEC teams after 'Bama and Florida just aren't attractive options this year, even if they'll end up BCS eligible (Georgia's loss to Georgia Tech may knock them out of the top 14, and Mississippi isn't going to sneak in). And with the choices of Ohio State, Boise State, Cinci, and maybe Ball State -- expect the Sugar to snap up the Buckeyes without thinking twice.

Orange Bowl: BC vs. Cincinnati

Cinci all but wrapped up the Big East by beating Syracuse while Pitt beat WVU. Virginia Tech and BC play for the ACC title, though it looks like Georgia Tech is actually the best team in the ACC. BC won this the first time, so I'm projecting them here.